| (Is the Seattle Slew / Mr Prospector Nick For Real; or is it Just s a Fascade? Read the Below and Decide for Yourself...) |
"The Seattle Slew / Mr Prospector Nick: As Strong as Supposed?"
Note: On the private internet group Racing Post Columnist Tony Morris and I belong to,
some people were writing about a Seattle Slew / Mr Prospector cross, which is widely
considered one of the top nicks, and in response I wrote the following:
Hi All,
Just so you know, this highly relevant note by Skiuchin was
excerpted from the VGS explaining article on my website
(http://www.venturageoscore.com/VGSARTICLE.html).
Anyways, at this point I 100% stand behind what I wrote there vis a vie my
assertion that the Seattle Slew (Non-AP Indy Source) / Mr P cross is
overrated...
As to what Jay said about their being many a weak Mr P descendant
crossing with many a weak Seattle Slew descendant; that's a good
point vis a vie batting down low Percentage SWs and Percentage G1Ws
for the horses with the cross. However, the VGS is not about % SWs or %
G1Ws to Foals and MAJOR part of the whole point of my designing it the
way I did was on account of it adjusting for the quality (or lack thereof!) of
the two ancestors involved in the cross.
Now I'm not saying the Seattle Slew/Mr P cross is not a quite good one;
however, what's boosted it up to the level where people call it a
"Nick" is the MUCH stronger AP Indy/Mr Prospector cross (and it's
much stronger even taking into account AP Indy's being the strongest
Seattle Slew son).
Well, that and the fact that both trace to Myrtlewood and what I
call the "Explainablity Bias" vis a vie talking about crosses that
fit into a wider theoretical framework while ignoring stronger
crosses that either "Jus' Happen" to be good or are caused by
Genetical Factors not yet widely understood or explicitated.
Yes, the good results for Seattle Slew / Mr P may have something to
do with Myrtlewood (but then again they might not). Regardless, the
AP Indy / Mr P cross is much superior even though they don't trace
back to the same female line ancestress.
Also, the AP Indy / Fappiano cross is perhaps the strongest
subgrouping of the AP Indy / Mr P nick; it's G1W VGS is a very
healthy 7.19 (based on 3 G1Ws) and it's GSW VGS is 5.34 (based on 7 GSWs).
Anyway Jay, I'm just trying to point out what I perceive to be a
limitation of the Myrtlewood explanation of the SS/Mr P thing: it just
doesn't explain why the AP Indy / Mr P subgrouping of the more
general cross is so much better even after taking into account
quality.
Does it need to explain it?
The answer is no, unless one takes one's interest in such patterns
too far and forgets the importance of "Considering the Source" and
the very important fact that the Seattle Slew Genes in AP Indy are
different than the Seattle Slew Genes in any other of his sons (I'm not
saying you have, Jay, just that it's a danger I've noticed in this sort of
way of viewing pedigrees).
After all, even if somehow inbreeding to old Myrtlewood is 100%
responsible for all the success got by SS / Mr P horses; the source
of Seattle Slew and Mr P would still be of utterly paramount
importance.
For instance, perhaps AP Indy got especially much Myrtlewood Genes
compared to other SS sons; or perhaps he got especially good
Myrtlewood Genes compared to his paternal half-brothers; or perhaps
he got Myrtlewood Genes that go especially well with the Myrtlewood Genes
in Mr Prospector compared to his paternal half-brothers.
As a matter of fact, perhaps many an other son of Seattle Slew
either:
A. Didn't get any Myrtlewood Genes.
B. Got none of the "Special" Myrtlewood Genes.
C. Got Negative Recessives from Myrtlewood that just happen to
overlap with the Negative Recessives Mr P got from Myrtlewood (which
equals the possiblilty at least of inbreeding depression).
Note: For the best Internet description of Inbreeding Depression I have yet
encountered, please see my article entitled: "What is Inbreeding?"
Also, here's the excerpt from my VGS Article discussing the Seattle Slew / Mr
Prospector cross:
And in another important advantage, this technique Isolates the
effect of the Cross and the Blood Compatibility of the Two
Ancestors Involved from the effect of the two ancestors in a so-
called nick having their descendant populations concentrated in
the same Country or Countries, which is of PROFOUND importance
in properly evaluating nicks.
I say this because it is very common for a cross to have a high
amount of success primarily because the two aspects of the
cross stood in the same Country. For instance, with a cool 26
G1 Winners Seattle Slew and Mr Prospector are often pointed to
as a very strong nick but the trouble is that 53% of Mr
Prospector’s World-Wide Influence as a progenitor of G1Ws is
concentrated in America, which also happens to be the best hot-
bed of Seattle Slew blood there is.
And guess what? By taking this into account the carefully
designed VGS System gives to the Seattle Slew/ Mr Prospector
cross, in spite of its formidable reputation, a World-Wide VGS
of 1.57, which is another way of saying it’s done only 57%
better than average in terms of generating G1Ws.
However, with the use of the G1Goldmine Program we can note
that a VERY high proportion of the Seattle / Mr Prospector
crossed G1Ws (including American Eclipse Champions like
Mineshaft, Declan’s Moon, and Tempera) get their Seattle Slew
through AP Indy and the VGS on that MORE SPECIFIC cross reveals
a MUCH STRONGER World-Wide Ventura GeoScore of 3.72; which
means the cross of AP Indy and Mr Prospector is over three and
a half times better at producing G1Ws than it should have been
even taking into account the high quality of the two ancestors
and the high degree of Geographic Overlap.
Quite possibly this excellent result is driven partly by AP
Indy’s need for a more speed oriented influence on the
damside. And significantly, even though sons of AP Indy have
only sired 6 G1 Winners so far, 2 of them (Malibu Moon and
Pulpit) have managed to sire G1 Winners (Declan’s Moon and
Tapit) from mares descended of Mr Prospector, which strongly
indicates this nick works through sons of AP Indy as well.
(Incidentally, the Seattle Slew/Mr Prospector cross’s Ventura
GeoScore of 1.57 would go down to 1.28 if we left AP Indy’s G1
Winning Descendants out of the calculations.)
Note: On the private internet group Racing Post Columnist Tony Morris and I belong to,
some people were writing about a Seattle Slew / Mr Prospector cross, which is widely
considered one of the top nicks, and in response I wrote the following:
Hi All,
Just so you know, this highly relevant note by Skiuchin was
excerpted from the VGS explaining article on my website
(http://www.venturageoscore.com/VGSARTICLE.html).
Anyways, at this point I 100% stand behind what I wrote there vis a vie my
assertion that the Seattle Slew (Non-AP Indy Source) / Mr P cross is
overrated...
As to what Jay said about their being many a weak Mr P descendant
crossing with many a weak Seattle Slew descendant; that's a good
point vis a vie batting down low Percentage SWs and Percentage G1Ws
for the horses with the cross. However, the VGS is not about % SWs or %
G1Ws to Foals and MAJOR part of the whole point of my designing it the
way I did was on account of it adjusting for the quality (or lack thereof!) of
the two ancestors involved in the cross.
Now I'm not saying the Seattle Slew/Mr P cross is not a quite good one;
however, what's boosted it up to the level where people call it a
"Nick" is the MUCH stronger AP Indy/Mr Prospector cross (and it's
much stronger even taking into account AP Indy's being the strongest
Seattle Slew son).
Well, that and the fact that both trace to Myrtlewood and what I
call the "Explainablity Bias" vis a vie talking about crosses that
fit into a wider theoretical framework while ignoring stronger
crosses that either "Jus' Happen" to be good or are caused by
Genetical Factors not yet widely understood or explicitated.
Yes, the good results for Seattle Slew / Mr P may have something to
do with Myrtlewood (but then again they might not). Regardless, the
AP Indy / Mr P cross is much superior even though they don't trace
back to the same female line ancestress.
Also, the AP Indy / Fappiano cross is perhaps the strongest
subgrouping of the AP Indy / Mr P nick; it's G1W VGS is a very
healthy 7.19 (based on 3 G1Ws) and it's GSW VGS is 5.34 (based on 7 GSWs).
Anyway Jay, I'm just trying to point out what I perceive to be a
limitation of the Myrtlewood explanation of the SS/Mr P thing: it just
doesn't explain why the AP Indy / Mr P subgrouping of the more
general cross is so much better even after taking into account
quality.
Does it need to explain it?
The answer is no, unless one takes one's interest in such patterns
too far and forgets the importance of "Considering the Source" and
the very important fact that the Seattle Slew Genes in AP Indy are
different than the Seattle Slew Genes in any other of his sons (I'm not
saying you have, Jay, just that it's a danger I've noticed in this sort of
way of viewing pedigrees).
After all, even if somehow inbreeding to old Myrtlewood is 100%
responsible for all the success got by SS / Mr P horses; the source
of Seattle Slew and Mr P would still be of utterly paramount
importance.
For instance, perhaps AP Indy got especially much Myrtlewood Genes
compared to other SS sons; or perhaps he got especially good
Myrtlewood Genes compared to his paternal half-brothers; or perhaps
he got Myrtlewood Genes that go especially well with the Myrtlewood Genes
in Mr Prospector compared to his paternal half-brothers.
As a matter of fact, perhaps many an other son of Seattle Slew
either:
A. Didn't get any Myrtlewood Genes.
B. Got none of the "Special" Myrtlewood Genes.
C. Got Negative Recessives from Myrtlewood that just happen to
overlap with the Negative Recessives Mr P got from Myrtlewood (which
equals the possiblilty at least of inbreeding depression).
Note: For the best Internet description of Inbreeding Depression I have yet
encountered, please see my article entitled: "What is Inbreeding?"
Also, here's the excerpt from my VGS Article discussing the Seattle Slew / Mr
Prospector cross:
And in another important advantage, this technique Isolates the
effect of the Cross and the Blood Compatibility of the Two
Ancestors Involved from the effect of the two ancestors in a so-
called nick having their descendant populations concentrated in
the same Country or Countries, which is of PROFOUND importance
in properly evaluating nicks.
I say this because it is very common for a cross to have a high
amount of success primarily because the two aspects of the
cross stood in the same Country. For instance, with a cool 26
G1 Winners Seattle Slew and Mr Prospector are often pointed to
as a very strong nick but the trouble is that 53% of Mr
Prospector’s World-Wide Influence as a progenitor of G1Ws is
concentrated in America, which also happens to be the best hot-
bed of Seattle Slew blood there is.
And guess what? By taking this into account the carefully
designed VGS System gives to the Seattle Slew/ Mr Prospector
cross, in spite of its formidable reputation, a World-Wide VGS
of 1.57, which is another way of saying it’s done only 57%
better than average in terms of generating G1Ws.
However, with the use of the G1Goldmine Program we can note
that a VERY high proportion of the Seattle / Mr Prospector
crossed G1Ws (including American Eclipse Champions like
Mineshaft, Declan’s Moon, and Tempera) get their Seattle Slew
through AP Indy and the VGS on that MORE SPECIFIC cross reveals
a MUCH STRONGER World-Wide Ventura GeoScore of 3.72; which
means the cross of AP Indy and Mr Prospector is over three and
a half times better at producing G1Ws than it should have been
even taking into account the high quality of the two ancestors
and the high degree of Geographic Overlap.
Quite possibly this excellent result is driven partly by AP
Indy’s need for a more speed oriented influence on the
damside. And significantly, even though sons of AP Indy have
only sired 6 G1 Winners so far, 2 of them (Malibu Moon and
Pulpit) have managed to sire G1 Winners (Declan’s Moon and
Tapit) from mares descended of Mr Prospector, which strongly
indicates this nick works through sons of AP Indy as well.
(Incidentally, the Seattle Slew/Mr Prospector cross’s Ventura
GeoScore of 1.57 would go down to 1.28 if we left AP Indy’s G1
Winning Descendants out of the calculations.)
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