“Brother Derek: A Ventura GeoScore Perspective”
by Michael Ventura, copyright March 22nd, 2006.
Note: For a basic explanation of the VGS spoken of in this article see here: Home Page
It must be said that the California bred 3YO Brother Derek has a somewhat unusual
pedigree for a Derby Favorite. For instance, according to the G1Goldmine Program
his damsire Siyah Kalem has only 2 Graded Stakes Winners amongst all his
descendants.
But the thing is that BOTH of these 2 GSWs (Brother Derek and the lesser known
G3W Standard Setter) are by the same sire in Benchmark.
Moreover, this cross of Benchmark and Siyah Kalem has been outperforming
opportunity mightily according to the Ventura GeoScore: Whereas the average VGS
is only 1.00, this cross of Benchmark and Siyah Kalem gets a G1 Winner Based
VGS of 579.00 and a Graded Stakes Winner Based VGS of 858.75! (And since the
GSW Based VGS is both Huge and based on a sample size of more than 1 GSW, it
has a very high probability of being driven by non-random factors.)
Perhaps the first possible non-random factor that jumps to mind is a Bloodline
Affinity (or "Nick") between Benchmark and Siyah Kalem and if there was a powerful
Genetic Compatibility between Brother Derek's sire (Benchmark) and damsire (Siyah
Kalem) it certainly could go a long way to explaining his success and bode very well
for his future.
But the possible kink is that there's an alternative non-random factor aside from a
Bloodline Affinity. Namely, the simple fact that both Benchmark and Siyah Kalem
have stood in the same semi-isolated American State (California) for the duration of
their reproductive lives.
You see, I myself admit in my VGS Explaining Article that this can push a score
upwards unfairly as it can cause a cross to be tried more than the VGS Program
“Thinks” it has been (presently, the VGS adjusts for Geography by Country but not
by sub-national State).
However, as per the Thoroughbred Times, Benchmark has only been bred to Siyah
Kalem mares enough times to produce 4 foals of racing age, which means the cross
gets a very good 25% G1 Winners and 50% Graded Stakes Winners. Also, thanks
to Brother Derek's 3xTime Non-Graded SW and G2 Placed Full Brother
Don'tsellmeshort, 75% of the Benchmark/Siyah Kalem crosses are Stakes Winners (I
know 4 foals of racing age hardly constitutes a very large sample size, but
nonetheless such outstanding results strongly indicate a significant affinity).
Also, it’s worth noting that this probable Benchmark/Siyah Kalem affinity is backed
up by a much more broad based affinity between Benchmark’s damsire Danzig and
Siyah Kalem’s sire Mr Prospector.
I say this as the Danzig/Mr Prospector cross has managed to get a G1W Based
VGS of 2.12 (or more than twice the average VGS) in spite of the huge sample size
of 49 World-Wide G1Ws. And though the GSW Based VGS for Danzig/Mr
Prospector is a more sensible 1.73, that’s still quite good considering it’s based on
an even larger sample size of 128 World-Wide GSWs for the cross.
Probably even more significantly than all this though, the 2nd damsire of Brother
Derek is Relaunch, who just “happens” to have combined with Benchmark in his only
other G1 Winner thus far: the Santa Anita Oaks (G1) Winner Silent Sighs. Also,
Benchmark and Relaunch have combined in Silent Sighs’ G2 Winning and G1 Placed
full sister Proposed.
As a result of this success and the very low likelihood of it having occurred by
chance, this cross of Benchmark and Relaunch gets a very unusually good G1W
Based VGS of 82.71 and a GSW Based VGS of 92.01. (And in this case both the
G1W Based and GSW Based VGSs are based on a sample size of 2 or more.)
Clearly, Brother Derek has an excellent pedigree from a VGS Perspective given that
his Sire/Damsire and Sire/2nd Damsire combos get such outstanding scores (even
given the low sample sizes they're big enough that such extreme results have an
extremely high probability of meaningfulness).
I well know no horse bred in California has won the Derby since Decidedly in 1962,
and also I well know Brother Derek is not so well bred in the area of brute quality as
some other Derby Contenders (and these two facts are related to each other, of
course).
However, from the standpoint of his Sire and his Dam having Genes compatible with
each other as measured by the VGS System he's the number one Derby Contender
this year and I think he has a better shot of winning the Derby than any other
California bred has had in the last 44 years.
Note: I realize that many readers of this article may not know what the "VGS" is or
how it's generated so here's a link to an article that explains what it is and how it's
made: VGS Explaining Article
Also, if you want to check out the VGS you can visit the following site to download a
Free Demo Version of the G1Goldmine Product featuring the VGS (note that while
the demo includes the G1 Winner Based VGS for free you'll have to pay to get the
Graded/Group Stakes Winner Based VGS):
Download The VGS System Here For Free
by Michael Ventura, copyright March 22nd, 2006.
Note: For a basic explanation of the VGS spoken of in this article see here: Home Page
It must be said that the California bred 3YO Brother Derek has a somewhat unusual
pedigree for a Derby Favorite. For instance, according to the G1Goldmine Program
his damsire Siyah Kalem has only 2 Graded Stakes Winners amongst all his
descendants.
But the thing is that BOTH of these 2 GSWs (Brother Derek and the lesser known
G3W Standard Setter) are by the same sire in Benchmark.
Moreover, this cross of Benchmark and Siyah Kalem has been outperforming
opportunity mightily according to the Ventura GeoScore: Whereas the average VGS
is only 1.00, this cross of Benchmark and Siyah Kalem gets a G1 Winner Based
VGS of 579.00 and a Graded Stakes Winner Based VGS of 858.75! (And since the
GSW Based VGS is both Huge and based on a sample size of more than 1 GSW, it
has a very high probability of being driven by non-random factors.)
Perhaps the first possible non-random factor that jumps to mind is a Bloodline
Affinity (or "Nick") between Benchmark and Siyah Kalem and if there was a powerful
Genetic Compatibility between Brother Derek's sire (Benchmark) and damsire (Siyah
Kalem) it certainly could go a long way to explaining his success and bode very well
for his future.
But the possible kink is that there's an alternative non-random factor aside from a
Bloodline Affinity. Namely, the simple fact that both Benchmark and Siyah Kalem
have stood in the same semi-isolated American State (California) for the duration of
their reproductive lives.
You see, I myself admit in my VGS Explaining Article that this can push a score
upwards unfairly as it can cause a cross to be tried more than the VGS Program
“Thinks” it has been (presently, the VGS adjusts for Geography by Country but not
by sub-national State).
However, as per the Thoroughbred Times, Benchmark has only been bred to Siyah
Kalem mares enough times to produce 4 foals of racing age, which means the cross
gets a very good 25% G1 Winners and 50% Graded Stakes Winners. Also, thanks
to Brother Derek's 3xTime Non-Graded SW and G2 Placed Full Brother
Don'tsellmeshort, 75% of the Benchmark/Siyah Kalem crosses are Stakes Winners (I
know 4 foals of racing age hardly constitutes a very large sample size, but
nonetheless such outstanding results strongly indicate a significant affinity).
Also, it’s worth noting that this probable Benchmark/Siyah Kalem affinity is backed
up by a much more broad based affinity between Benchmark’s damsire Danzig and
Siyah Kalem’s sire Mr Prospector.
I say this as the Danzig/Mr Prospector cross has managed to get a G1W Based
VGS of 2.12 (or more than twice the average VGS) in spite of the huge sample size
of 49 World-Wide G1Ws. And though the GSW Based VGS for Danzig/Mr
Prospector is a more sensible 1.73, that’s still quite good considering it’s based on
an even larger sample size of 128 World-Wide GSWs for the cross.
Probably even more significantly than all this though, the 2nd damsire of Brother
Derek is Relaunch, who just “happens” to have combined with Benchmark in his only
other G1 Winner thus far: the Santa Anita Oaks (G1) Winner Silent Sighs. Also,
Benchmark and Relaunch have combined in Silent Sighs’ G2 Winning and G1 Placed
full sister Proposed.
As a result of this success and the very low likelihood of it having occurred by
chance, this cross of Benchmark and Relaunch gets a very unusually good G1W
Based VGS of 82.71 and a GSW Based VGS of 92.01. (And in this case both the
G1W Based and GSW Based VGSs are based on a sample size of 2 or more.)
Clearly, Brother Derek has an excellent pedigree from a VGS Perspective given that
his Sire/Damsire and Sire/2nd Damsire combos get such outstanding scores (even
given the low sample sizes they're big enough that such extreme results have an
extremely high probability of meaningfulness).
I well know no horse bred in California has won the Derby since Decidedly in 1962,
and also I well know Brother Derek is not so well bred in the area of brute quality as
some other Derby Contenders (and these two facts are related to each other, of
course).
However, from the standpoint of his Sire and his Dam having Genes compatible with
each other as measured by the VGS System he's the number one Derby Contender
this year and I think he has a better shot of winning the Derby than any other
California bred has had in the last 44 years.
Note: I realize that many readers of this article may not know what the "VGS" is or
how it's generated so here's a link to an article that explains what it is and how it's
made: VGS Explaining Article
Also, if you want to check out the VGS you can visit the following site to download a
Free Demo Version of the G1Goldmine Product featuring the VGS (note that while
the demo includes the G1 Winner Based VGS for free you'll have to pay to get the
Graded/Group Stakes Winner Based VGS):
Download The VGS System Here For Free
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